India-EFTA TEPA at One: Tariffs Were Never the Real Test

On 07 October, 2026, India hosted the 2nd India-EFTA Prosperity Summit in New Delhi after a year of the commencement of the Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement (TEPA). The mood was celebratory but the evidence is more interesting than the mood.

Trade Reality Behind TEPA’s First Year

In FY26, India’s goods exports to EFTA partners declined by 10.77% and by 22.72% in April-June 2026, with Switzerland being the worst affected. The trade balance, by contrast, is primarily a gold story as imports consist of a large majority of gold, whose effective duty (TEPA) remains unchanged. A weak export performance is likely not to be attributed to duty: Switzerland removed all industrial origin tariffs for all products on 1 January 2024, and in FY2023, India’s industrial exports to Switzerland accounted for 98% of its total merchandise export value. This contribution of TEPA in that place is better explained as legal lock-in rather than a new advantage in pricing. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department is asking exporters to flag customs delays, certification and rules-of-origin problems, indicating these are procedural problems.

A “binding” promise that says “aim”

The USD 100 billion investment and one million jobs promise are legally binding, officials say. The softer Article 7.1 says: EFTA States shall aim towards a goal of USD 50 billion of FDI lifted in 10 years and USD 50 billion in 5 years (excluding portfolio flows). Prabhash Ranjan, on the other hand, interprets this as an obligation of conduct, rather than a result, and points to a footnote that assumes India would continue to grow at nominal GDP at 9.5% for 15 years.

The USD 100 billion figure matters less than the calendar. The Review of the first Investment Sub-Committee will be completed no later than five years after the entry into force, that is, by October 2030. A long consultation process and 15 years review are the conditions for India to rebalance tariff concessions.

Set against this, Swiss investment grew by USD 202 million for the period September 2025 to March 2026, while the linear ask in total amounts to approximately USD 5 billion per year from all four EFTA States. The yardsticks vary, but the distance between them is revealing.

Implications for Businesses and General Counsel

TEPA’s utility to businesses will rely as much on compliance, and contractual readiness, as on its trade commitments, for businesses that will be doing business with EFTA States. Rule of origin and certification should be viewed as fundamental compliance processes and companies should verify the documents before goods are shipped to ensure compliance with customs regulations, avoiding delays. They should also be careful to not just use the treaty to design EFTA linked investments; the investment chapter is not about investment protection or investment-State arbitration but about investment promotion. Thus, contractual clauses regarding governing law, dispute resolution, and change-in-law should be dealt with. Since the India-EFTA Desk was established in February 2025, businesses can avail of it as a one-stop platform for investor queries. But TEPA should be judged not just by the words proclaimed at the Summit, but by the extent to which businesses manage to meet its requirements and get ready for the first review of the agreement.